Monday Morning Meeting Notes (02/27/2023)

General Info:

• Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose faster than economists expected in January
• PCE rose 0.6% month-over-month and rose 5.4% year-over-year (vs. expectations of 0.5% and 5.0%, respectively)
• Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure as it excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.6% month-over-month and 4.7% year-over-year (vs. expectations of 0.4% and 4.3%, respectively)
• The reacceleration of inflation and continued personal spending on both goods and services led to the futures market pricing in 0.75% worth of interest rate hikes by June, which would bring the fed funds rate to a target range of 5.25-5.50%
• Fun Fact: In 1988, Israel Kamakawiwo’ole called a sound recording studio in Honolulu at 3am and asked if he could come record. Because he was so polite, the studio owner allowed him to come and record his idea. Israel sang, played his ukulele, and recorded “Somewhere Over The Rainbow” in just one take

Monday 02/27:

• Target, Progressive, Trex, Porch Group, Tetra Technologies, and Vimeo report earnings
• U.S. durable goods orders
• Eurozone economic confidence and consumer confidence

Tuesday 02/28:

• Autozone, Axon Enterprise, Verisk Analytics, Omnicell, and Black Knight report earnings
• U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence for February
• U.S. wholesale inventories
• GDP data for France, Switzerland, Canada, Sweden, and India
• Japan industrial production and retail sales

Wednesday 03/01:

• Salesforce, Lowes, and Dollar Tree report earnings
• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data for the U.S., Eurozone, U.K., France, Germany, and India
• Caixin Manufacturing PMI data for China
• ISM Manufacturing PMI data for the U.S.
• U.S. light vehicle sales for February

Thursday 03/02:

• Dell Technologies, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Nordstrom, Stevanato Group, AerCap Holdings, Six Flags Entertainment, and Macy’s report earnings
• U.S. initial jobless claims and continuing claims
• Eurozone unemployment
• Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) data for February
• South Korea industrial production
• The European Central Bank (ECB) publishes the minutes from its February policy meeting

Friday 03/03:

• S&P Global Services PMI data for the U.S., Eurozone, U.K., France, Germany, and India
• Caixin Services PMI data for China
• ISM Services PMI data for the U.S.
• Eurozone producer price index (PPI)
• Japan unemployment