Monday Morning Meeting Notes (05/08/2023)

General Info:

• The Federal Reserve (Fed) voted unanimously to raise interest rates by 0.25% last week, bringing the fed funds rate to a target range of 5.00-5.25%
• The Fed deleted language “anticipating further tightening” from its official statement as it will weigh inflation, labor market, and credit conditions data on a meeting-by-meeting basis
• The Fed noted that it will continue its balance sheet runoff program by allowing $60 billion of U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion of Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities to mature or be sold each month
• The U.S. employment report showed 253,000 new jobs added in April (vs. expectations of 180,000)
• The labor force participation rate remained steady at 62.6%, while the unemployment rate declined from 3.5% to 3.4% to reach its lowest level since May 1969
• On a sour note, the previous two reports were revised to show 149,000 fewer jobs were created; despite this, the rolling three-month average remains strong at 222,000 jobs created per month
• Fun Fact: When Walt Disney was in the process of creating Mickey Mouse, he suggested the name of his new character to be Mortimer Mouse. However, his wife, Lillian Disney, felt the name sounded too pompous, and suggested Mickey, instead
• Disney later used Mortimer Mouse as a character and made him Mickey’s longtime rival

Monday 05/08:

• PayPal and McKesson report earnings
• U.S. wholesale inventories
• Chile copper exports

Tuesday 05/09:

• Occidental Petroleum and Mitsubishi report earnings
• U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April
• China aggregate financing, trade, money supply, and new yuan loan data

Wednesday 05/10:

• Toyota, Disney, and Trade Desk report earnings
• U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for April
• CPI is expected to have increased 0.4% month-over-month and 5.0% year-over-year
• Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is expected to have increased 0.3% month-over-month and 5.5% year-over-year

Thursday 05/11:

• Honda, Deutsche Telekom, Hon Hai Precision, ING Groep NV, JD.com, and SoftBank report earnings
• U.S. producer price index (PPI)
• China CPI and PPI data
• Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy decision and press conference
• The BOE is expected to hike rates by 0.25%, bringing its bank rate to 4.5%
• U.K. GDP data for Q1 2023

Friday 05/12:

• Nippon Telegraph & Telephone reports earnings
• U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (Preliminary May data)
• CPI data for France, Spain, India, Brazil, and Argentina
• GDP data for Norway, Hong Kong, and Malaysia