Monday Morning Meeting Notes (07/03/2023)

General Info:

• U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for May were largely in-line with economist expectations
• PCE increased 0.1% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year
• Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% month-over-month and 4.6% year-over-year (vs. expectations of 4.7%); Core PCE has consistently been between 4.6-4.7% since December 2022
• U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) for Q1 2023 was revised up from 1.3% to 2.0% annualized, with the notable move driven by upward revisions to exports and consumer spending
• The Supreme Court struck down President Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan as the court ruled that the president needed congressional approval to direct the Education Secretary to cancel so much debt
• President Biden noted that his administration is already working to enact a different debt relief program under another law, but the specifics are to be determined
• Fun Fact: Static electricity in synthetic clothing can set off firecrackers, so the people who make firecrackers wear only cotton clothing while making firecrackers
• Another firework fun fact: on January 1^st, 2016, a show in the Philippines set the record for the largest firework display as it set off 810,904 fireworks

Monday 07/03:

• The U.S. stock market will close at early at 1pm and the bond market will close at 2pm in anticipation of the Independence Day holiday
• ISM Manufacturing PMI data for the U.S.
• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the U.S., Eurozone, U.K., Germany, France, and India
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday 07/04:

• U.S. financial markets are closed for the Independence Day holiday
• Banks are closed, it’s a non-settlement day, and no wires/checks will be processed
• National Barbecued Spareribs Day – this is a sign/direct message to those July 4^th party hosts

Wednesday 07/05:

• Federal Reserve (Fed) releases the minutes from its June 13^th-14^th monetary policy meeting
• S&P Global Services PMI for the Eurozone, U.K., Germany, France, and India
• China Caixin Services PMI

Thursday 07/06:

• National Fried Chicken Day – fried chicken was invented by Scottish settlers in the 1700s, which calls for a Braveheart reference - "Alba gu bràth"
• S&P Global Services PMI data for the U.S.
• ISM Services PMI data for the U.S.
• U.S. initial jobless claims and continuing claims data
• U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for May will provide insights into job openings, layoffs, and voluntary quits
• Eurozone retail sales data for May

Friday 07/07:

• U.S. employment report for June, which is expected to show 225,000 new jobs added
• The unemployment rate is expected to decline from 3.7% to 3.6%, while average hourly earnings are expected to have risen 0.3% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year
• Chile copper exports for June