Monday Morning Meeting Notes (12/04/2023)

General Info:

• U.S. GDP data for Q3 was revised upwards from 4.9% to 5.2% annualized due to upward revisions in business investment and government spending
• The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure – personal consumption expenditures (PCE) – slowed due to softening income growth and falling energy prices
• PCE was flat month-over-month and rose 3.0% year-over-year (vs. expectations of 0.0% and 3.1%, respectively)
• Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year (in-line with expectations)
• Some Federal Reserve officials have recently noted with increased confidence that interest rates are sufficiently restrictive because economic activity is slowing (at a reasonable pace)
• Fun Fact: Did you know that there’s a lake within an island on a lake within an island? In the Philippines, Vulcan Point is an island within Main Crater Lake. Main Crater Lake is located on Volcano Island, Volcano Island is located in Lake Taal, and Lake Taal is located on the island of Luzon. Confused yet?

Monday 12/04:

• International Cheetah Day
• Cheetahs can reach a top speed of 70 mph in just three seconds, with their stride spanning 21 feet
• Their name comes from the Hindi word “chita,” which means “spotted one”
• U.S. durable goods orders for October

Tuesday 12/05:

• JM Smucker, Ferguson PLC, and AutoZone report earnings
• U.S. ISM Services PMI data for November
• U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for October
• S&P Global Services PMI data for the Eurozone and Japan for November
• China Caixin Services PMI data for November
• Eurozone producer price index (PPI) data for October

Wednesday 12/06:

• Sprinklr reports earnings
• U.S. trade balance for October
• Eurozone retail sales for October
• Bank of England (BOE) issues its biannual stability report on the U.K. financial system
• Bank CEOs, including those from JPMorgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America, are expected to testify on regulatory oversight to the Senate Banking Committee

Thursday 12/07:

• National Pearl Harbor Remembrance Day marks the 82^nd anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor
• PepsiCo, Broadcom, Dollar General, DocuSign, and Guidewire Software report earnings
• U.S. initial jobless claims and continuing claims data
• Eurozone Q3 2023 GDP data (final reading)
• Chile copper exports, trade, and consumer price index (CPI) for November
• China trade data and forex reserves for November
• Germany industrial production for October

Friday 12/08:

• U.S. employment report for November, which is expected to show 180,000 new jobs added
• The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.9%, the labor force participation rate is expected to remain steady at 62.7%, and average hourly earnings are expected to have risen 0.3% month-over-month and 4.0% year-over-year
• U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment for December (preliminary reading)
• Japan Q3 2023 GDP data (final reading)
• Germany CPI data for November
• Taiwan import/export trade data for November