Monday Morning Meeting Notes (12/18/2023)

General Info:

• U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data for November was largely in-line with expectations
• CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month and rose 3.1% year-over-year (vs. expectations of 0.0% and 3.1%)
• Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% month-over-month and 4.0% year-over-year (both in-line with expectations)
• The Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its interest rate target at a range of 5.25-5.50%, as was expected
• The Fed’s updated Dot Plot showed that the central bankers estimate there will be 0.75% of rate cuts in 2024 (vs. previous Dot Plot estimate of a 0.25% cut); it’s worth noting that the Dot Plot is not set in stone, and it’s often an unreliable estimate
• The official meeting statement was changed vs. last month to reflect that economic growth “has slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter” and inflation “has eased”
• Financial markets rallied strongly on Wednesday due to the expectation of rate cuts amid the “dovish” monetary policy shift
• The Russell 2000 Index made a new 52-week-high this week after hitting a 52-week-low just 48 days ago. That’s the shortest turnaround time in the index’s history dating back to the 1970s
• Fun Fact: In the 1823 poem titled A Visit from St. Nicholas, the last two reindeer were originally named Dunder and Blixem. Dunder and Blixem were the Dutch words for thunder and lightning, but today we know these famous reindeer as Donner and Blitzen

Monday 12/18:

• Answer The Telephone Like Buddy The Elf Day – be sure to introduce yourself enthusiastically and ask “what’s your favorite color”
• Nasdaq 100 index annual reconstitution takes place before market open

Tuesday 12/19:

• Accenture PLC and FedEx report earnings
• U.S. housing starts and building permits data for November
• Eurozone CPI data for November
• Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy meeting

Wednesday 12/20:

• General Mills, MillerKnoll, Winnebago Industries, and Micron Technology report earnings
• U.S. existing home sales for November
• U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence data for December
• U.K. CPI data for November
• Taiwan export orders for November
• Disney opens a new theme park – Zootopia Land in Shanghai, China

Thursday 12/21:

• Nike and Paychex report earnings
• Winter Solstice, which marks the shortest day and longest night of the year in the Northern Hemisphere
• U.S. Q3 2023 GDP data (third reading)
• U.S. initial jobless claims and continuing claims data

Friday 12/22:

• U.S. personal income and spending data for November, including personal consumption expenditures (PCE)
• PCE is expected to have remained flat, while the year-over-year figure is expected to have risen 2.8%
• The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have risen 0.2% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year
• U.S. new home sales for November
• U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data for December
• U.K. retail sales data for November
• Japan CPI data for November