Monday Morning Meeting Notes (03/27/2023)

General Info:

• The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised rates by 0.25%, bringing the fed funds rate to a range of 4.75-5.00%
• Chairman Jerome Powell noted in his press conference that the recent banking events may result in a tightening of credit conditions, which may have the same effects that their policy does, so less rate hikes may be necessary
• In addition, the Fed updated its Dot Plot estimates and now sees the fed funds rate finishing 2023 at 5.1% (implies one more 0.25% rate hike this year)

Source: Bloomberg, as of 03/22/23

• Fun Fact: Nachos were invented in 1943 by Ignacio Anaya, a maître d' at Victory Club Restaurant in Piedra Negras, Mexico. He found himself in a pinch when a group of guests arrived hungry at his restaurant, and he was without a chef. He went to the kitchen and began cutting up tortillas, which he then topped with cheese and jalapeño peppers. An ode to his nickname, he called the dish “Nachos Especiales”
• To celebrate Anaya's invention, the city of Piedras Negras holds a three-day Nacho Fest every year around October 21, the International Day of the Nacho

Monday 03/27:

• Germany IFO business climate
• China industrial profits

Tuesday 03/28:

• Walgreens Boots Alliance reports earnings
• U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds the first of several hearings on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank
• U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence index for March
• Apple launches a new classical music service, with the creative name of Apple Music Classical

Wednesday 03/29:

• U.S. House panel will hold a hearing focused on the recent bank failures, with Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Michael Barr and FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg to testify
• EIA crude oil inventory report

Thursday 03/30:

• The European Central Bank (ECB) publishes its Economic Bulletin, which presents economic and monetary information that forms the basis for the central bank’s policy decisions
• In addition, the March Bulletin includes economic analysis and macroeconomic projections on inflation, growth, public finances, and external trade
• Germany consumer price index (CPI) data
• Eurozone economic confidence and consumer confidence data
• U.S. initial jobless claims and continuing claims data

Friday 03/31:

• U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March
• U.S. personal income and spending data for February
• U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data for February
• PCE is expected to have increased 0.3% month-over-month, while the year-over-year pace is expected to have slowed from 5.4% to 5.1%
• Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge as it excludes volatile food and energy costs, is expected to have increased 0.4% month-over-month, while the year-over-year pace is expected to remain steady at 4.7%
• CPI data for the Eurozone, France, and Italy
• Japan unemployment, industrial production, and retail sales data
• Eurozone unemployment rate for February