Monday Morning Meeting Notes (02/05/2024)

General Info:

• First and foremost: shoutout to Punxsutawney Phil for the early spring prediction
• U.S. employment report for January showed 353,000 new jobs added (vs. expectations of 180,000), and the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%
• In addition, the two prior monthly readings were revised upwards by a combined 126,000 jobs
• Average hourly earnings rose 0.6% month-over-month (vs. expectations of 0.3%) and 4.5% year-over-year
• The Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained the fed funds rate at a target range of 5.25-5.50%
• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not use the press conference to set the stage for a March rate cut, which many people believed would be the starting point for the Fed’s policy reversal
• Given market expectations of a sooner-than-later rate cut (and the irrational, short-term mindset of many investors), U.S. stocks sold-off on Wednesday after the press conference
• Fun Fact: Saltines and other crackers have holes in them in order to prevent air bubbles from ruining the product during the baking process

Monday 02/05:

• Caterpillar, McDonald’s, Estee Lauder, ON Semiconductor, Tyson Foods, Simon Property Group, Simpson Manufacturing, and Skyline Champion report earnings
• The Fed issues its senior loan officer survey, which provides insights into lending standards and demand
• The OECD issues its interim economic outlook report for the global economy
• S&P Global Services PMI data for the U.S., Eurozone, U.K., Japan, Hong Kong, India, and Australia

Tuesday 02/06:

• UBS, Linde PLC, Eli Lilly, Ford, Fiserv, Gartner, Cummins, KKR, Xylem, Cerence, Chipotle, Amgen, Gilead Sciences, Carlisle, and Snap report earnings
• Eurozone retail sales for December
• Japan household spending for December
• The Bank of England (BOE) releases its quarterly report on its asset purchase facility

Wednesday 02/07:

• Disney, CVS Health Corp, McKesson, O’Reilly Automotive, PayPal, Uber, Yum! Brands, Wynn Resorts, U-Haul, Macerich, Adient PLC, and EnerSys report earnings
• U.S. trade data for December
• China foreign reserves for January
• Germany industrial production for December
• Chile copper exports for January

Thursday 02/08:

• Harley-Davidson, Intercontinental Exchange, ConocoPhillips, Baxter International, Hershey, Axalta Coating Systems, TransDigm, Zimmer Biomet, Duke Energy, T. Rowe Price, S&P Global, Phillip Morris International, Verisign, and Pinterest report earnings
• U.S. initial jobless claims and continuing claims data
• Consumer price index (CPI) data for January is reported by several emerging market countries – China, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and Russia
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks at a Senate Banking Committee hearing on the Financial Stability Oversight Council annual report
• The European Central Bank (ECB) publishes its economic bulletin

Friday 02/09:

• PepsiCo reports earnings
• Lunar New Year’s Eve celebrations begin, ushering in the Year of the Dragon
• National Pizza Day – approximately 17% of all restaurants in the U.S. are pizzerias
• China aggregate financing, money supply, and new yuan loans for January
• Germany CPI data for January