Monday Morning Meeting Notes (05/01/2023)

Weekly Economic Insights

Monday Morning Meeting Notes (05/01/2023)

Bradley Prosper, CFA®, CFP® Weekly Economic Insights

Monday Morning Meeting Notes (05/01/2023)

General Info:

  • The advance reading of Q1 2023 U.S. GDP showed a growth rate of 1.1% annualized, which was lower than consensus estimates (2.0%) primarily due to companies drawing down on their inventories
  • Inventories are often one of the more volatile measures of GDP growth, as headwinds from companies drawing down their inventory levels in one quarter often lead to a pickup in new orders and an increase in inventories in the following quarter
  • Due to the cyclicality of inventories, we would take the “GDP miss” with a grain of salt
  • Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for March were largely in-line with expectations
  • PCE increased 0.1% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year
  • Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy costs and is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, increased 0.3% month-over-month and 4.6% year-over-year
  • Fun Fact: Although we colloquially refer to all of them as peacocks, only the males are actually called peacocks. The females are peahens, and the species is peafowl

Monday 05/01:

  • Berkshire Hathaway, Park Hotels and Resorts, ON Semiconductor, SBA Communications, NXP Semiconductors, and MGM Resorts International report earnings
  • U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for April

Tuesday 05/02:

  • Pfizer, BP, Ford, DuPont de Nemours, Uber, Sealed Air Corp, Advanced Micro Devices, Marathon Petroleum Corp, Simon Property Group, and Lumen Technologies report earnings
  • U.S. light vehicle sales for April
  • U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for March
  • S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone, U.K., France, Germany, Spain, and Italy
  • Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) data for April

Wednesday 05/03:

  • Verisk Analytics, Yum! Brands, Qualcomm, MagnaChip Semiconductor, CVS, Kraft Heinz, Scotts Miracle-Gro, Etsy, Generac, Zillow, Vimeo, and NiSource report earnings
  • Federal Reserve monetary policy decision, followed by Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference
  • The Fed is expected to increase rates by 0.25%, which would bring the fed funds rate to a target range of 5.00-5.25%
  • U.S. ISM Services PMI for April
  • U.S. ADP payroll data for April
  • Eurozone unemployment data

Thursday 05/04:

  • Apple, Becton Dickinson, Aptiv PLC, Ball Corp, Kellogg, Macerich, Sabre Corp, PPL Corp, Intercontinental Exchange, Shopify, XPO Logistics, Zoetis, Jones Lang Lasalle, and Lyft report earnings
  • European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision and President Christine Lagarde’s press conference
  • The ECB is expected to raise rates by 0.25%, which would bring its main refinancing rate to 3.75%
  • U.S. initial jobless claims and continuing claims data
  • S&P Global Services PMI for the Eurozone, U.K., France, Germany, Spain, and Italy
  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Friday 05/05:

  • Calumet Specialty Products, Magna International, and Mettler-Toledo report earnings
  • Cinco de Mayo, which commemorates the Battle of Puebla during the French-Mexican War, symbolizes Mexico’s freedom (not to be confused with Mexico’s independence day), and acts as a day to honor Mexican culture
  • In 1861, the Battle of Puebla pitted 6,000 French troops vs. an under-supplied and outnumbered group of Mexican troops, but the Mexican army overcame the French in under a day
  • U.S. employment report for April, which is expected to show 180,000 new jobs added
  • In addition, the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.5%, while average hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.3% month-over-month and remain at 4.2% year-over-year
  • China Caixin Services PMI
  • Eurozone retail sales

About the Author

Bradley Prosper, CFA®, CFP®

Senior Research Analyst
Mr. Prosper is a member of the Firm’s investment research group where he assists in conducting investment research that is instrumental in the construction, maintenance, and management of client portfolios. This research includes the procurement of primary data via direct investment manager interviews as well as analyzing information from our data resources.