Monday Morning Meeting Notes (06/05/2023)

General Info:

• Over the weekend, President Biden signed a bill suspending the U.S debt ceiling until January 1, 2025
• The U.S. employment report for May showed 339,000 new jobs added (vs expectations of 190,000), the labor force participation rate remained steady at 62.6%, and the unemployment rate ticked up from 3.4% to 3.7%. How did the unemployment rate go up despite the headline showing the U.S. added jobs and the labor force participation rate remained steady? They’re based on two different surveys
• The headline 339,000 jobs added is based on the establishment survey, which is a monthly sample of 122,000 businesses and government agencies
• The unemployment rate is based on the household survey, which is a monthly sample of 60,000 eligible households. This survey showed a loss of 310,000 jobs in May
• Given the difference in the way the two surveys are conducted, the household survey counts multiple jobholders once and the establishment survey counts multiple jobholders for each nonfarm payroll job they hold (e.g. the establishment survey can double-count people)
• The household survey tends to be more volatile due to its smaller sample size, but it also tends to mean revert over the medium term so this conflicting report should be taken with a grain of salt
• Fun Fact: June never begins on the same day of the week as any other month of the year, but it always ends on the same day of the week as March. I’ve made the below table for the haters/non-believers

Monday 06/05:

• U.S. ISM Services PMI data for May
• S&P Global Services PMI data for the U.S. and Eurozone
• China Caixin Services PMI
• Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference takes place through June 9^th

Tuesday 06/06:

• Eurozone retail sales

Wednesday 06/07:

• National Chocolate Ice Cream Day
• It’s also National Running Day, but I will ignore that and celebrate the ice cream instead
• U.S. consumer credit
• Chile copper exports
• Germany industrial production
• The OECD releases its latest global economic outlook
• Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting, where the central bank is expected to maintain its benchmark rate of 4.5%

Thursday 06/08:

• U.S. initial jobless claims and continuing claims data
• U.S. wholesale inventories

Friday 06/09:

• China aggregate financing, money supply, and new yuan loans
• China reports two inflation measures – producer price index (PPI) and CPI