Monday Morning Meeting Notes (10/31/2022)

Weekly Economic Insights

Monday Morning Meeting Notes (10/31/2022)

Bradley Prosper, CFA®, CFP® Weekly Economic Insights

Monday Morning Meeting Notes (10/31/2022)

General Info:

  • U.S. GDP grew 2.6% in the third quarter, which was higher than expected
  • On the other hand, the report showed a slowdown in consumer spending growth (went from 2.0% in Q2 to 1.4% in Q3) and a sharp -26.4% decline in housing investment
  • U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), an inflation measure, was lower-than-expected in September
  • Headline PCE grew 0.3% month-over-month and 6.2% year-over-year, while Core PCE (excludes volatile food and energy) grew 0.5% month-over-month and 5.1% year-over-year
  • The European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates by 0.75% in its fight against inflation
  • U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rates have more than doubled this year and are above 7% for the first time since April 2002
  • Fun Fact: Turnips were the original Jack-o-Lanterns in Ireland and Scotland. When the Irish and Scottish immigrated to the U.S., they found that pumpkins were much easier to carve, and a tradition was born

Monday 10/31:

  • Q3 2022 GDP data for the Eurozone, which is expected to have risen 2.1% year-over-year
  • Eurozone CPI data for October
  • China Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • OPEC launches its 2022 World Oil Outlook at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, which runs through November 3rd

Tuesday 11/01:

  • ISM Manufacturing PMI for the U.S., India, Japan, U.K., and China
  • U.S. light vehicle sales data for October
  • U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for September

Wednesday 11/02:

  • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy decision, followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference
  • The FOMC is expected to raise rates by 0.75%, which would bring the fed funds rate to a target range of 3.75-4.00%
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain
  • The Bank of Japan (BOJ) releases the minutes from its September meeting

Thursday 11/03:

  • ISM Services PMI for the U.S., India, Japan, U.K., and China
  • Eurozone unemployment data
  • Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy decision
  • Netflix is set to introduce a lower-priced advertising-supported plan for $7 per month

Friday 11/04:

  • U.S. employment report for October is expected to show 190,000 new jobs added
  • Also expected: an increase in the labor force participation rate (from 62.3% to 62.4%) and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate (from 3.5% to 3.6%) due to the increased participation rate
  • ISM Services PMI for the Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain
  • The U.N.’s Food and Agricultural Organization releases its monthly index of world food prices
  • After the measure spiked to record highs in the spring, it has fallen for six straight months

About the Author

Bradley Prosper, CFA®, CFP®

Senior Research Analyst
Mr. Prosper is a member of the Firm’s investment research group where he assists in conducting investment research that is instrumental in the construction, maintenance, and management of client portfolios. This research includes the procurement of primary data via direct investment manager interviews as well as analyzing information from our data resources.