Monday Morning Meeting Notes (10/31/2022)

General Info:

• U.S. GDP grew 2.6% in the third quarter, which was higher than expected
• On the other hand, the report showed a slowdown in consumer spending growth (went from 2.0% in Q2 to 1.4% in Q3) and a sharp -26.4% decline in housing investment
• U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), an inflation measure, was lower-than-expected in September
• Headline PCE grew 0.3% month-over-month and 6.2% year-over-year, while Core PCE (excludes volatile food and energy) grew 0.5% month-over-month and 5.1% year-over-year
• The European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates by 0.75% in its fight against inflation
• U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rates have more than doubled this year and are above 7% for the first time since April 2002
• Fun Fact: Turnips were the original Jack-o-Lanterns in Ireland and Scotland. When the Irish and Scottish immigrated to the U.S., they found that pumpkins were much easier to carve, and a tradition was born

Monday 10/31:

• Q3 2022 GDP data for the Eurozone, which is expected to have risen 2.1% year-over-year
• Eurozone CPI data for October
• China Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI
• OPEC launches its 2022 World Oil Outlook at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, which runs through November 3^rd

Tuesday 11/01:

• ISM Manufacturing PMI for the U.S., India, Japan, U.K., and China
• U.S. light vehicle sales data for October
• U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for September

Wednesday 11/02:

• Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy decision, followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference
• The FOMC is expected to raise rates by 0.75%, which would bring the fed funds rate to a target range of 3.75-4.00%
• ISM Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain
• The Bank of Japan (BOJ) releases the minutes from its September meeting

Thursday 11/03:

• ISM Services PMI for the U.S., India, Japan, U.K., and China
• Eurozone unemployment data
• Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy decision
• Netflix is set to introduce a lower-priced advertising-supported plan for $7 per month

Friday 11/04:

• U.S. employment report for October is expected to show 190,000 new jobs added
• Also expected: an increase in the labor force participation rate (from 62.3% to 62.4%) and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate (from 3.5% to 3.6%) due to the increased participation rate
• ISM Services PMI for the Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain
• The U.N.’s Food and Agricultural Organization releases its monthly index of world food prices
• After the measure spiked to record highs in the spring, it has fallen for six straight months